Tag Archives: Brexit

Brexit. Again.

There’s only one topic for anyone who identifies as being into preparedness in the UK right now: Brexit, unfortunately. I’m completely sick of the political shenanigans from politicians of every hue, and I think it’s pretty much insane to trust a word that any of them says.

The only thing we absolutely know is that today is 31st January, and we’re supposed to leave the EU on 29th March, and that’s really not very long. Currently, the Conservatives seem to be waivering about asking for an extension: who knows if they’ll get it together to ask, who knows what the EU will say, refusing/ accepting/ making a counter-offer. 29th March really isn’t very far away: eight weeks tomorrow, in fact. Jeez, that’s really not long, and as some people have been pointing out, it’s right in the “hungry gap” – the percentage of our food that we import will be at it’s highest. The first of the harvests is yet to come through, and the weather might be very bad, it might even be a cold spell like the one we currently have. Though it could be a balmy early spring, who knows?

And that’s the point. We don’t know – about the weather, about whether the politicians can get their acts together, about whether the businesses and government departments who say they’re stockpiling are doing it, about whether those stockpiles will be enough.

Preppers traditionally take stock of low probability-high impact events. But Brexit, we absolutely know that it’s coming, just like winter in Westeros.   We don’t know what the impact will be, not really: I suspect it won’t be quite as bad as has been touted, but that might be my own normalcy bias. I also suspect – well, I know to be an absolute truth – that I can’t completely trust any organisation out there, to put my interests first. Government departments, private companies, even charities: the latter, especially, mean well, but they only have so many resources, so many volunteers or workers.

So I have to look out for my own needs, and just like a parent on an aircraft that’s having an emergency, I put my own needs first and then look out for what I can do for others. I certainly don’t want to get caught up in panic buying, or rioting either come to that.

And it’s the staples we need to look after, of course, perfectly ordinary, really: food, water, and shelter, which includes not only a safe place to live, but also fuel to heat it. I’m assuming that you’ve long ago made the decision to “keep a good pantry”, to have what we’re now calling a stockpile, apparently. As a prepper, surely you keep a good amount on hand? Even preppers are limited by their storage availability, of course.

So rather than saying, “this is what you should be storing”, I’m saying, these are the issues that you probably want to consider before you finish up on your Brexit preps:

– if you’re only just started prepping, and you just have a couple of weeks’ food and water on hand, consider getting more, because the potential lorry gridlock we’re hearing about might well last quite a bit longer than that.

– if you normally store for six months or so, do you want to increase that? Ask yourself why, what do you consider might happen?

– if space is an issue, dried food might be a big part of your way forward, it’s much denser. It needs more preparation, thats true, so it probably shouldn’t be the only sort of food you store.

– are you growing anything edible in your garden? If not, I strongly recommend you do. People are short of time, yes, but there’s always something that can be done.

– there may be interruptions to the power supply, partly because 6% of our electricity comes directly from the EU via big seabed interconnectors. But as mygridgb says (and it’s a very transparent site, check out the About page), even the energy we generate in this country relies on imports: “nearly every form of electricity generator in the UK relies on some form of import; the majority of our fossil fuels is imported; nuclear fuel is imported; much of our solar panels are manufactured abroad etc”.

Given this situation, short term and long term, how will you cope for heating and cooking? There are many potential sources, all of which have their advantages and disadvantages: butane, petrol, gas, solid fuel, gel, kelley kettles and rocket stoves can all contribute, but whichever you pick, you absolutely have to practice beforehand and know what you’re doing.

I suspect that for a lot of people, the statements above will be self evident. I hope it’s all a fuss about nothing, and a compromise of some sort will be found, but I really can’t imagine what it might be.

Anyway, to end, I thought I’d just make a few notes about the extra things I’m doing, that aren’t covered in “stock up on food, water and fuel”:

– rationalising the supplies I already have. My first aid stocks, my dried peas and beans and lentils, I’ve kept a fair inventory, but they’ve definitely become disorganised, so I’ve organised things to fit well in their spaces, and more accessibly too. I’d let a few gaps in the stocks develop, and those are now filled.

– organising information. I have a nice slim bookcase, 3 shelves high, stacked with books on first aid, food preservation, gardening, home maintenance, security, all sorts of things. I also have literally hundreds of prepping books stored on my kindle account: how to sharpen hand tools, types of wood and the best way to use them for fires for heating, leatherwork, hunting rabbits, map reading, sharpening garden shears, all sorts of specialised little books. Far too many to have as physical copies, so I’ve not only got my little kindle, I’ve got the kindle app on my laptop, with plenty of space for even the most niche books, like lockpicking, and opening lift doors. I love books like that.

– setting up the garden. My garden has some good edible perennials in, including herbs, but its not what you’d call full, and over the last couple of years, a fair number of perennial weeds, like bramble and couch grass, have made their way in, while I’ve been up north on family business. Now I’m back full time, I’m working on clearing the weeds away for good, as well as setting up some house plants that are beneficial – chili, aloe vera, things like that – and that all stands me in good stead too.

– working on the garden has given me opportunities to chat more to the neighbours, about their thoughts, the sort of pantry they keep, and the neighbourhood in general. Anything that solidifies local bonds is good.

And that’s the idea, to be in good stead. It’s not only about having enough food and water: it’s also about having them before a panic sets in earlier than the event itself, for instance.

Stay warm. Stay safe.

 

 

Brexit and Preparedness

It’s been the only big new topic in the UK for months, unfortunately – though at least it’s got a lot of new people talking about being prepared. If you’re one of them, welcome! Don’t get scared, get ready.

The crunch date is 29th March 2019 just four months away.

I had a look at the official information online from the UK and the EC, it’s all about No Deal, or persuading us to Go For The Deal – and if I’d read even a one paragraph summary of it in the body of a blog post, I’d be running away screaming. So I’ve put it at the bottom, in blue italics, to ignore it more easily; I wanted people to be able to see it if they felt the need, though.

And that sums it up, really: their wordiness, mistakes, miscommunications, mindless optimism is unworthy of all of us. I absolutely do not trust these people to supply my food, my medicines, my fuel and my equipment around the turning point at the end of March next year. I won’t get into the politics of it, as that’s even more of a nightmare in my opinion, I just want to focus on the strategies for ordinary citizens to cope with this mess.

What to do? What do we do? A lot of the answer is bog-standard preparedness. Food, water, fuel. Plus cash, and documents, which are also bog-standard in their own way.

Food

Stock up! We import 40% of our food, and think about what happens when there’s a strike that lasts longer than a few days: fresh food gets a bit short, and/or goes up in price. I can see wobbles in the supply chain easily lasting a couple of weeks, and food that comes from outside the EU will also be affected – think of the queues of container lorries in Kent that we see when French port workers go on strike – everything is affected, from everywhere. All food can be expected to be in short supply sometimes, and to be more expensive in general. We don’t have time to grow anything except microgreens, sprouting shoots and maybe winter veg like kale … so stock up! What should you stock up on? Use the old prepper proverb: eat what you store, store what you eat.

Water

Well, we definitely have our own water, don’t we! Except our water supply companies also need water purification chemicals, and electricity to run the pumps and other parts of the system. The chemicals, and the energy, may need to be imported – I don’t know about the chemicals, I’m afraid, though I’m pretty sure we don’t produce our own. But I know we import some energy and this is the UK government’s optimistic little piece of “this is what we need to do”. 

If you never have before, now is the time to stock up on at least a few days emergency supply of water, plus some purification tablets and a filter, if possible. A week would be better. Any problems may simply be about boiling the water that arrives in your pipes, but spending a few pounds on some water bottles, and maybe some wet wipes, will certainly give you peace of mind and flexibility.

Fuel

As I mentioned above, we import fuel. This is the Ofgem description of one of the ways we do it and I notice that the link to Northern Ireland is included in that. Hmmm. In any case, notice that those links are all about the EC. What if we had a snowy April? And the new regulatory systems weren’t able to cope? Do you have easy access to alternate heating? Lighting? How will you heat your food, and your water?

Equipment

Anything that comes to us from abroad, anything at all. Even if it comes from outside the EU, like China, it may come via a third party inside the EU, and it may simply be caught up in the generalised queuing and delays that are almost bound to develop. A sewing machine. Kids’ toys. Shoes. Car parts. All and any of it could be caught up in a snarled-up system.

Cash

We’re starting to get used to banking systems crashing occasionally, and the people who get affected always need cash, because it’s the only thing that isn’t gummed up by a computer crash. Imagine if that kind of crash was nationwide, affecting everyone? How long would it take to get things going again? I strongly recommend everyone to have available as much cash as you can, as safely as you can. Remember there are thieves, too, who find cash nice and easy.

And another element of this: if you know you need to pay a bill in the first half of April, try to pay it before the end of March – if the banking systems get constipated, you might get accidentally overdrawn, you might get a penalty fine, you might have a red mark on your file, who knows.

Documents

Make sure you have at least a couple of sets of documents of anything you need: insurance, pensions, travel tickets (even if you’re not travelling abroad). Any of the systems that use this information might get clunky, overwhelmed by the new inputs, so you need to be able to prove that what you’re saying is true. A paper copy, and at least one electronic copy, is preferable. Two is better, of course!

Northern Ireland is in a special situation with all this, because of it’s land border with an EC state, the Republic of Ireland. The physical reality on the ground has always been that it’s a pretty porous border, and over the years shopping over the border has become very common. I’d bet a lot of money that that will continue, but how much administrative interference there’ll be is anybody’s guess.

The absolute worst I’m expecting to happen is the sort of disruption we experience when there’s a big strike, and that’s liveable with, of course. Though if you’re the one who has to boil your water, or miss out on a holiday, or spend the night in a queue of cars, or be unable to buy your monthly season train ticket, then it will feel really bad, I expect. If your preps enable you not to fall foul of these sorts of Brexit-caused problems, then that would be a good thing. Go for it.

 

OFFICIAL “INFORMATION”:   FEEL FREE TO IGNORE

This is the list of the UK government’s guidance papers in case of a no-deal Brexit. Nearly all of them are about how businesses can prepare: but of course, businesses provide to the public – food, travel, equipment – so a lot of it is directly relevant to all of us. The plan, however, seems to have been to make it as awkward or as boring as possible to get the information. To get to a page that gives any kind of information at all is a three-step process, and the first 8 short paragraphs are identical in each paper. Not exactly consumer friendly.

And that’s an important point: in spite of one of the Aviation papers saying that air passengers should know this information, none of it is really geared to individuals, it’s all about businesses.

This shameful website is a government propaganda machine all on it’s own. Obviously, it’s primarily meant to be read on mobiles – on a laptop, I warn you, it looks like it’s meant for five year olds, but I suppose that’s how most new websites are. I had a little look at the Brexit Blog, which is so far a few responses to newspaper articles. That’s fair enough, but the one I managed to look at is just at the level of “they said this, and it’s not true”. And as for the “40 reasons to back the Brexit deal”. Omigod, I’ve never read such a simplistic official summary of such a complex historic situation.

The EU itself has a slightly more informative introductory page: although the link to the European Medicines Agency, for example, was broken, at least I could then find a press update, dated October, about what’s going on.

The Irish government actually has a pretty good list of papers. This is the main link and this, for example, is the link to the paper about international recognition of professional qualifications, which is something that really is of importance to a lot of people, including members of my own family.